The PGA Tour season is beginning to pick up steam, and with the 2024 Players Championship fast approaching, the key question everyone's asking is the same across the golf world: Who are you picking to win at TPC Sawgrass? With a tremendous field featuring most of the best golfers in the world, we should be in for an epic ride beginning with Thursday's first round.
The Players may not hold the "major championship" designation, but it's nevertheless a huge event on the annual golf calendar. In fact, the PGA Tour's flagship event offers a $25 million purse with $4.5 million going to the winner. That's more than will be payed out at the Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open or Open Championship this year.
Scottie Scheffler, the defending Players champion, enters with plenty of momentum fresh off a victory at the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational -- his first win in 51 weeks. Justin Thomas, the 2021 winner at TPC Sawgrass, has also been playing excellent golf of late. Meanwhile, Rory McIlroy is hoping to find the best of his game with just about one month to go until he competes for the elusive green jacket at Augusta National Golf Club.
One name not on the commitment list for The Players is Tiger Woods. The 15-time major champion was last seen withdrawing from the second round of the Genesis Invitational in February due to illness (not injury) as he battled to make the cut at the event he hosts annually. It was thought that Woods might ramp his game back up at TPC Sawgrass ahead of the Masters, but now it's looking like he may not return to the game until April.
So what is going to happen this week in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida? Let's take a look at a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts.
2024 Players Championship expert picks, predictions
Kyle Porter, senior golf writer
Winner -- Scottie Scheffler (5-1): I'm not scared of Scheffler trying to win back to back tournaments and back to back Players. That's how well he's playing and how well he's hitting the golf ball right now. And for everybody saying that he can't have two hot putting weekends in a row, I say, it doesn't matter. He won this tournament by five strokes (seven over third place) last year when he was field average in putting. Best player in the world, and it's not even close.
Sleeper -- Wyndham Clark (40-1): I'm not sure what I'm missing here. He won the Pebble Beach Pro Am and finished second to Scheffler at the Arnold Palmer Invitational a week ago. Yet he's 40-1 to win the Players? He's been bad in the other events he's played, sure, but that's kind of the point. Feast or famine right now for Clark, which is a good thing for a 40-1 sleeper.
Top 10 lock -- Hideki Matsuyama: Can I pick Scheffler again here? Nobody is a lock for anything at TPC Sawgrass, but Matsuyama has two top 10s in his last four appearances at the Players Championship and is hitting the ball as well as anybody. Among those with 20 measured rounds in their last 36 played, Matsuyama ranks ninth in tee-to-green play, won the Genesis Invitational and finished T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Star who definitely won't win -- Rory McIlroy: His iron play just isn't sharp enough right now. I'll happily be wrong about this because that would mean Scheffler and McIlroy winning in consecutive weeks, but there's work to be done with his approach shots ahead of the Masters. It's not difficult to see him contending because of how well he's driving it, but it's a bit tougher to see him winning.
Surprise prediction -- A 150-1 (or longer) long shot will be in contention on Sunday: This is not really that surprising given how much variance this course seems to bring about and the field being a bit less top heavy with plenty of major stars now competing over in LIV Golf.
Lowest round: 64 (-8)
Winning score: 272 (-12)
Winner's Sunday score: 70 (-2)
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Winner -- Scottie Scheffler (5-1): I am on the record saying I want more than five wins out of Scheffler this season, and one this week would go a long way towards that total. We don't need to discuss his tee-to-green or ball-striking metrics, which have been absurd for the last two years, because they aren't going anywhere. I am not 100% sold on the new mallet putter (yet), but it has clearly added a strut to Scheffler's walk on the greens. He is clearly confident, and Scheffler has shown that he plays well at the same golf courses year over year. Scottie goes back-to-back at Sawgrass.
Sleeper -- Russell Henley (60-1): It's time to put some respect on his name. Henley is fresh off a T4 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and an ideal statistical fit at TPC Sawgrass. One of the most accurate drivers of the ball on the planet, Henley will be able to pick apart this tricky Pete Dye design. His putting has been much improved in 2024, transforming the 34-year-old into a complete player. He collected top 20s in his last two attempts at The Players.
Top 10 lock -- Will Zalatoris: Anyone other than Scheffler feels uncertain, but I'll go with Zalatoris. He's rattled off three straight top 15s with a pair of top-five finishes in signature events. Plenty has been made of the broomstick putter, and while it has vastly improved his play on the greens, Zalatoris has made strides in another area of the bag. Employing a shorter driver, Zalatoris is finding the short grass off the tee at one of the highest clips of his career. These improvements combined with his iron play should lead to a quality result.
Star who definitely won't win -- Rory McIlroy: What is going on with McIlroy's iron play is anyone's guess at the moment, but I do know it is not good. He has been driving the ball like a stallion for the past month but gotten absolutely nothing out of it. The big numbers have riddled his scorecard so far in 2024, and that is not something you want coming into TPC Sawgrass where high leverage golf shots are plentiful.
Surprise prediction -- Half the top 10 on the oddsboard miss the cut: TPC Sawgrass is labeled as volatile by some, but it is more high-leverage than anything. The par-3 17th is a great example as a missed green in regulation doesn't lead to a potential par save or bogey, but almost certainly a double bogey. Shots like these are throughout the golf course. Because of this and the sloppiness of some of the PGA Tour's top players, I reckon half of them will be sent packing early.
Lowest round: 64 (-8)
Winning score: 273 (-15)
Winner's Sunday score: 70 (-2)
Adam Silverstein, editorial director
Winner -- Viktor Hovland (22-1): I'll be the one who doesn't go with chalk here. Hovland has not been playing his best golf of late, and he opened the week tearing down the PGA Tour commissioner ... so what better outcome than forcing him to hand Hovland the trophy Sunday evening? With the Masters approaching, this is the time for the Norwegian to start gearing up, and we've seen him do well at The Players with T3 and T9 finishes over each of the last two playings of this event. Plus, his odds are outstanding.
Sleeper -- Tom Hoge (65-1): With one of the best scores to par combined at TPC Sawgrass over the last two years, the 34-year-old is live here. He's also been playing well of late. Here are his last five finishes: T6, T17, 8th, T28, 12th. That includes top-10s at Pebble Beach and Riviera, plus a top-15 at Bay Hill. Is Hoge going to win The Players? Probably not. But at odds this long, we could do far worse than backing him.
Top 10 lock -- Scottie Scheffler: The benefit of not picking Scheffler to win. He begins the week as the reigning champion both on the PGA Tour and in this event, he has three top five and five top-10 finishes in six starts this season, and no one in the world is playing better golf.
Star who definitely won't win -- Collin Morikawa: Morikawa has played decently well at TPC Sawgrass, but he's been up and down all year with two missed cuts in his last four stars. He has not truly come close to contention yet in 2024, and I don't see it happening at a course as unpredictable as this one.
Surprise prediction -- The Players will exceed expectations: There has been so much talk about the field being reduced due to defections from some of the best golfers in the world, but there is still a lot of star power at TPC Sawgrass this year. The cream usually rises to the top when the stakes are the highest, and a $25 million purse is pretty damn high. Yes, the PGA Tour has gotten off to a rough start this year, but this weekend is where that all turns around.
Lowest round: 65 (-7)
Winning score: 274 (-14)
Winner's Sunday score: 69 (-3)
Who will win The Players Championship, and which long shots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard and best bets, all from the model that's nailed 10 golf majors and is up more than $9,600 since June 2020.
